Chance Precipitation facts
While investigating facts about Chance Precipitation, I found out little known, but curios details like:
If a weather forecast gives a 50% chance of precipitation that could mean there is a 100% chance of rain in 50% of the forecast area. The 'probability of precipitation' number frequently used in weather forecasts is widely misunderstood by the public.
If a weather forecaster gives a 50% chance of precipitation that could mean there is a 100% chance of rain in 50% of the area. The 'probability of precipitation' number frequently used in weather forecasts is mostly unknown by the public and is misinterpreted.
In my opinion, it is useful to put together a list of the most interesting details from trusted sources that I've come across. Here are 8 of the best facts about Chance Precipitation I managed to collect.
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When a meteorologist gives a 'chance of precipitation' it's based on a calculation. I.E. if they are 50% confident that 80% of an area will receive rain, the chance of rain is 40%.
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The costliest mistake in human history. Franz Ferdinand's chauffeur took a wrong turn, deviating from the pre-prepared evacuation route. Realising his error, he stopped; right in front of Gavrilo Princip. This gave Princip the chance to shoot and kill the Archduke, precipitating WWI.
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A weatherman can not use 50% when describing the Chance of Precipitation (CoP)
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A 50% chance of rain can occur in a forecast as it's raining. Probability of Precipitation is an average over a forecasted area. In one part of a forecasted area there can be a 100% chance of rain, and in another part of the same area there can be 0% - we are then told "50% chance of rain".
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Percentage chance of rain means "chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in an area" Not as percentage of the area or percentage of the day.
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If a weatherman forecasts that there will be a 40% chance of rain it doesn’t mean that there’s a 40% chance of it happening. Instead, it represents the probability that 40% of precipitation will occur at any particular location within the forecast area.
